Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
