A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
